Crude prices retraced a bit on Monday. Brent settled 50 cents lower at $62.22 /bbl. WTI eased 46 cents to settle at $56.09 /bbl.
While there has been a retracement, the persistent underlying bullishness is apparent from the fact that Brent recovered from a low of $61.46. This is even more striking when we take into consideration the fact that commodities across the board were hurt by the strengthening of the US dollar.
Yesterday, we had mentioned that funds have gone even longer on WTI futures and options. Reuters Market Analyst, John Kemp reports that the ratio of long positions to short is an alarmingly high 6.9 : 1 (See Details Here).
Saudi’s crude oil exports fell by 159 kb/d month-over-month to 6.55 mb/d in September, according to the latest JODI data released yesterday. Production ticked up marginally to 9.973 mb/d but still remains 6.4% lower than Sep 2016 levels. This comes after Aramco said last week that it would further cut December exports by 120 kb/d as the kingdom tries to promote rebalancing of the global oil markets.
Southern Iraqi crude exports rose 150 kbd month-over-month to 3.5 mb/d in October, according to shipping data from Reuters. This comes as Baghdad tries to offset a drop in exports from the Northern oilfields in the Kurdistan region, which averaged 250 kb/d in November (compared to ~600kb/d prior to the recent conflict).
The physical Naphtha crack eased slightly to $ 123.60 / MT. However, the market sentiment is still very strong notwithstanding the extra supplies coming in to the east in December. This is because most the material coming is reported to be low on paraffins.
The December crack is marginally lower at $ 3.80 /bbl.
Not much fresh news in the gasoline markets today. Market players are looking to finalise term contracts for 2018
The December 92 Ron paper crack is higher at $ 11.25 /bbl.
The distillate market for now is focusing on finalising term contracts for 2018. The spot market appears balanced with supplies from Thailand and India offsetting demand from Sri Lanka and Tanzania.
The December 0.05% Gasoil crack continues to rise and is now valued $13.55 /bbl. The regrade is unchanged at $ 0.80 /bbl.
The East-West arbitrage for December appears to have narrowed down. Rising fuel oil exports from Russia after completion of turn around depressed prices in the ARA region which encouraged traders to move cargos to the east after hedging the spread.
Supplies of Fuel Oil into East Asia for November are expected to close at 7 million tonnes a nine month high boosted by recovering Western arrivals, near record-high inflows from the Middle East and 11-month high intra-Asia volumes. Western fuel oil arrivals into Singapore are estimated at about 3.8-4.3 million tonnes for November and about 3-4 million tonnes in December
The December 180 cst crack is marginally lower at -2.35 /bbl. The visco spread has come in further to $ 0.60 /bbl.
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.
Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity