The DOE data showed a surprise draw of 553,000 barrels against a forecast of a 1.7 million barrel build. This did nothing to impress the market as Brent settled at $ 49.98 / bbl. WTI at $ 49.18 / bbl.
Basically the markets need fresh information that will convinece them that OPEC and all the other players are serious about a production cut. Iraq has effectively said no, Russia is saying it will maintain rather than cut. Saudi has given up its role as a swing producer a long time ago. So ‘who will bell the cat?’?
The Naphtha physical crack is going on making record numbers over the last 6 months as there appears to be strong demand coupled with a drop in supply.
The Singapore Naphtha crack for November should be positive. However, this market is notoriously illiquid
The gasoline crack today appears to be slowly but steadily climbing. Japanese stocks fell in midst of shut down and turn arounds 9.3 million barrels, their lowest levels in 13 years.
The crack appears to be in the region of $ 12 / bbl.
Middle distillate cracks continue to perform strongly as well.
China’s refined fuel stocks at the end of September 2016 were at the lowest levels since December 2015 with distillate stocks being at lowest levels since January 2014.
Jet is still weak quoting at a discount to gasoil for November and very small premiums for December. Japan is expected to have an average winter as per weather forecasts. This is likely to be neutral to weak for Jet.
The 180 cst crack settled at close to one year highs. Outlook for the near term continues to be bullish. The crack would be valued at -$2.50 / bbl
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.