As mentioned, the current upward run seems to have been exhausted as the API data failed to provide cheer to bulls. Crude stocks built by a sizeable 4.75 million barrelsT. Rationally the build was not unreasonable as there was stock floating on the sea last week due to storm activity. Nevertheless, it was far in excess of the expectations of nearly 2 million barrels.
Brent ended the day at $ 50.79 / bbl while WTI settled just under $ 50 at $ 49.96 / bbl. Both crudes lost a further 50 cents after the API data was published. If this gets corroborated by DOE data, prices may drop significantly.
Naphtha continues to rise in strength. Demand appears to be catching up with supply, or both are gravitating towards each other as the Saudi Refinery heads into turnaround and petrochemical margins are seen to be improving.
The Singapore Naphtha crack for November should be positive. However, this market is notoriously illiquid
The gasoline crack today appears marginally stronger at $11.6 per bbl
The bullish trend in Gasoil is likely to continue as we see stocks in US draw down. Gasoil remains very actively traded in the window. There are more stories being heard of Gasoil being stored on water though this could swiftly become uneconomical as freight costs rise.
Jet is still weak quoting at a discount to gasoil for November and very small premiums for December. Japan is expected to have an average winter as per weather forecasts. This is likely to be neutral to weak for Jet.
The 180 cst November crack continues to shine showing a value of around $ 2.5 /bbl discount to Dubai. This strengthening is accompanied by an increase in the visco spread demonstrating the shortage of low viscosity cutter stock.
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.