Crude Oil

Oil Prices continued to stay weak on a day of thin trading with the US being closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Brent futures settled 35 cents lower at $54.75 a barrel. WTI futures did not record a settle.

A weaker US Dollar also helped support prices.

China reported a 3% increase in refinery through put in 2020. Annual throughput stood at 674.41 million tonnes in 2020, or about 13.45 million barrels per day, up roughly 410,000 bpd from 2019, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

For the 2nd month in 3, the crude processed in China exceeds the volume produced and purchased by the country. Reuters analyst, Clyde Russel feels that this trend is unlikely to continue as China is still building strategic and commercial stockpiles.

covid 19 

At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 2,048,631 (+9,167 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 50,000 DoD to 25.32 million. (Click here for details).


Asia’s naphtha crack to Brent dropped around 3% to $112.90 / MT, but the outlook for the product remains bullish.

The prompt-month spread stretched to its widest since July on Monday, underscoring robust demand for prompt cargoes as South Korean buyers step up purchases with more crackers resuming operations. It remains to be seen if spot premiums could rise further for second-half March cargoes as trade kicks off this week.

The February crack is unchanged at  $2.75 /bbl.


Asia’s Gasoline crack edged down to $ 3.47 /bbl on Monday, but has held above $3 a barrel so far in January despite renewed lockdowns across the globe to curb the COVID-19 pandemic.

The February crack is marginally lower at $4.65 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.


Cash differentials for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content were at a discount of 14 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes, compared with a 13-cent discount on Friday.

Asian refining margins for 10 ppm gasoil dipped on Monday, despite weaker raw material crude prices, as concerns about near-term fuel demand growth on the back of surging coronavirus cases continued to weigh on market sentiments.

The February crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $5.45 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.30 / bbl. The regrade is at   -$ 0.80 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

The cash premium for Asia’s 0.5% VLSFO rose to $3.88 a tonne to Singapore quotes, up from $3.48 per tonne on Friday.

Asia’s cash premium for 380-cst HSFO rose by 28 cents to $1.28 per tonne to Singapore quotes on Monday, riding on a stronger deal in the physical trade window

Asia’s 0.5% VLSFO crack rose to $ 12.92 /bbl on Monday, climbing to its strongest level in more than 10 months, buoyed by firmer demand. However, the 380-cst HSFO barge crack for February dropped to a discount of $6.62 a barrel to Brent on Monday, compared with minus $6.33 a barrel at the end of last week, Refinitiv data showed.

The January crack for 180 cst FO is marginally lower at  -$3.30 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.55 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

No fresh action today 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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