Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Oil prices rose on continued optimism about vaccination rollouts and economic recovery with strong economic data from China leading the way. 

ICE Brent June futures did a final trade of $66.71 per barrel before the weekend. Brent settled Friday’s trade at $66.77, down 17 cents or 0.3%. It gained 6.7% for the week, its most since the week ended Jan. 29.

WTI crude futures settled Friday’s trade at $63.16, up 33 cents, or 0.5%. For the week, it rose 6.4%, its largest advance since the week ended Feb. 26.

China’s daily crude oil throughput surged 19.7% in March from a year earlier, as refiners ramped up operations to meet robust fuel demand and to build up inventory before shutting down for overhaul.

Iran has started the process of enriching uranium to 60% fissile purity at an above-ground nuclear plant at Natanz, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Saturday, confirming earlier statements by Iranian officials. China processed 59.79 million tonnes of crude oil last month, data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Friday. That is equivalent to 14.08 million barrels per day (bpd), easing off 14.13 million bpd averaged in the first two months.

Nigeria has sweetened the terms of a sweeping oil reform bill, by reducing royalty payments required, in a bid to attract much-needed investment to its oil industry, four people closely involved with the legislation said.

The oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose seven to 344 in the week to April 16, its highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co BKR.N said in its closely followed report on Friday.

Money managers raised their net long US crude futures and options positions by 1,511 contracts to total 376,948 in the week to 13 Apr’21, the US CFTC said on Friday.



At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 3,032,733 (+13,858 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 370,000 over the weekend to 18.28 million. (Click here for details).

Hong Kong will suspend flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines from 20 Apr’21 for two weeks after the N501Y mutant COVID-19 strain was detected in the country for the first time, authorities said in a statement late on Sunday.

Asia’s naphtha crack firmed up, climbing to a near three-session high of $90.58 a tonne, up from $87.40 a tonne in the previous session.

The May crack is higher -$ 0.05 /bbl

Asia’s gasoline cracks rose to a six-session high on Friday, buoyed by narrowing inventories, a stronger demand outlook and signs of economic recovery in China and the United States.

The gasoline crack climbed to $6.91 a barrel on Friday, up 10 cents from the previous session and $6.52 a barrel at the start of the week.

Singapore’s light distillate inventories rose 1% to a four-week high of 14.74 million barrels in the week to April 14, according to Enterprise Singapore data. This was inspite of an increase in export volumes of close to 100 KT gasoline and a drop in naphtha imports of  140 KT last week. 

The May crack is lower at $8.85 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Cash discounts for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content widened to 25 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes, from a discount of 18 cents per barrel a day earlier.

China’s diesel exports in Mar’21 hovered near a record level of 2.81 MMT while gasoline and jet fuel exports eased 14.6% YoY to 1.56 MMT and fell 51.6% YoY to 0.71 MMT respectively, data showed on Sunday.

Gasoil stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub dropped 2.6% to 2.3 million tonnes in the week to April 15, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed.

Cash discounts for jet fuel were at 36 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, compared with a discount of 62 cents per barrel a day earlier.

The May crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $5.35 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.55 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.80 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Asia’s front-month 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) cash premium and front-month time spread slipped on Friday but ended the week higher.

The cash premium slipped to $1.50 a tonne to Singapore quotes on Friday, down from a one-month high of $1.25 a tonne on Thursday but up from $1.13 a tonne on Monday.

The front-month VLSFO time-spread also slipped to $1.50 a tonne, down 25 cents from the previous session but up 25 cents from Monday, Refinitiv data in Eikon showed.

The VLSFO refining margin, however, edged higher on Friday despite rising crude oil prices, climbing to $13.51 a barrel above Dubai crude, up from $13.43 in the previous session and 6 cents lower from Monday’s settlement.

Fuel oil stocks in the ARA refining and storage jumped by 226,000 tonnes, or 15%, to a two-week high 1.743 million tonnes in the week ended April 15, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed.

The May crack for 180 cst FO is lower at  -$3.50 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.95 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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