Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Oil prices rose on continued optimism about vaccination rollouts and economic recovery with strong economic data from China leading the way. 

ICE Brent June futures rose 36 cents to settle at $66.94 a barrel. WTI May crude futures rose 31 cents to settle at $63.46 a barrel.

The Brent/WTI spread widened 7 cents to settle at minus $3.43, after hitting a high of minus $3.33 and a low of minus $3.50.

China’s economy grew at a record pace in 1Q’21, official data showed on Friday, expanding 18.3% YoY as the recovery from the coronavirus slump accelerated, slightly slower than the 19% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

The US, on Thursday, imposed a broad array of sanctions on Russia, including curbs to its sovereign debt market, to punish it for interfering in last year’s US election, cyber hacking, bullying Ukraine and other alleged malign actions.


At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 2,998,862 (+13,858 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 430,000 DoD to 17.91 million as the graph has got recalibrated again. Yesterday, the site was reporting 24.23 million. (Click here for details).

India reported a record 200,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday and the financial hub of Mumbai entered a lockdown, while Cambodia brought in a lockdown in Phnom Penh and a satellite district of the capital to contain a spike in coronavirus cases.

Asia’s naphtha crack dipped on Thursday, slipping towards a near four-month low on Tuesday.

The naphtha crack slipped to $87.43 a tonne, down from $87.88 a tonne in the previous session, and a near four-month low of $86.18 a tonne on Tuesday.

A sluggish demand outlook for naphtha amid refinery turnarounds in north Asia and weaker European naphtha markets have weighed on sentiment since the previous week.

The May crack is higher -$ 0.10 /bbl

Asia’s gasoline crack climbed on Thursday, despite rising crude oil prices, supported by limited output amid regional refinery maintenance and signs of improved demand in key markets.

The motor fuel refining margin climbed to a six-session high of $6.82 a barrel, up from $6.53 a barrel on Wednesday.

Singapore’s light distillate inventories rose 1% to a four-week high of 14.74 million barrels in the week to April 14, according to Enterprise Singapore data. This was inspite of an increase in export volumes of close to 100 KT gasoline and a drop in naphtha imports of  140 KT last week. 

The May crack is higher at $9.05 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Asia’s cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil weakened for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday to their biggest discounts in more than a week, while middle distillate inventories in Singapore climbed to a three-week high.

Cash discounts for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content widened to 18 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes, from a discount of 15 cents per barrel a day earlier.

The prompt-month time spread for the benchmark gasoil grade in Singapore, which has stayed in a contango since early March, traded at minus 14 cents per barrel on Thursday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Cash discounts for jet fuel were unchanged at 62 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes on Wednesday, compared with a discount of 59 cents per barrel on the previous day.

Singapore’s middle distillate inventories climbed 3.7% to 13.4 million barrels in the week to April 14, according to Enterprise Singapore data.

The May crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $5.50 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.55 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.80 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Asia’s 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) cash premium rose to a 1-1/2-month high of $1.58 a tonne to Singapore quotes on Thursday, buoyed by continued buying interest for physical cargoes of the fuel in the Singapore trading window.

Onshore fuel oil stocks climbed by 337,000 barrels, or about 53,000 tonnes, to 23.958 million barrels, or 3.773 million tonnes, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The May crack for 180 cst FO is higher at  -$3.35 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.95 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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