Crude prices finally eased up after 5 days of gains as Brent settled 49 cents lower at $ 48.42 / bbl. WTI too eased 52 cents to settle at $ 46.02 / bbl.
The drop in prices would be largely profit taking in the absence of any fresh news and a reasonably strong technical resistance of the 50 DMA hovering above.
While the markets await the API data release late today, Libyan production was reported at 1.05 mbpd.
In the last fortnight cash discounts to the marker have widened from $1 / MT to $ 4/MT due to the supply glut in the market. Supplies are expected to reach nearly 3 million tons this month and 2.9 million tons in August.
Having said the above, the forward cracks have improved, possibly due to drop in crude prices. The August crack is valued at -$0.35/bbl today.
Asia’s Gasoline crack continued to strengthen as stocks in the ARA and the US tighten.
The August crack has improved to $ 10.65 /bbl.
Distillate cracks eased today as traders eyed the return of refineries from turnaround next month. As buying from India died down in the wake of the monsoon and the return of the HMEL refinery from turn around, the sulfur spread (10 ppm – 500 ppm) has dropped down again to 36 cents on Friday. This was its lowest level since May 4
The August gasoil crack is a bit loweer at $ 12.10 /bbl. Once again, we notice that as the cracks ease, the regrade improves. The August regrade is at -$0.45 / bbl. today.
Fuel oil cracks are easing even as stocks appear tight. The logic appears slightly perverse, but the thought process is that if the East West arbitrage is not opening enough to permit transport of material to the East, demand there must not be that high. This is underlined by the drop in time spreads with August – September being valued at 25 c / MT, a far cry from the $ 2.5ish / MT a month ago.
The 180 cst August crack is at -$0.95 /bbl.
The July visco spread is higher at $0.95 /bbl.
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.