Crude Oil

Oil prices fell to their lowest in seven weeks on Thursday amid fears of rising global supplies after Iran announced plans to increase production and U.S. crude output hit record highs. Brent crude futures lost 70 cents to settle at $ 64.81 /bbl.  WTI lost 64 cents to close at $61.15 /bbl. 

Both benchmarks fell for the fifth straight day, the longest losing streak for Brent since November 2017 and for WTI since April 2017. Brent futures have lost as much as 15 percent since hitting a four-year high above $71 in late January. 

Barnabas Gan, commodity economist at OCBC, attributed the fall to a decline in risk appetite. “The fall in both WTI and Brent also brought both indicators below their 50-day moving average, suggesting that further technical sell-offs remain possible,” Gan added


After falling to a seven months low on Wednesday, the Asian physical naphtha crack recovered to $ 60.78 /MT  on Thursday even as the underlying fundamentals continue to remain weak. While the market has recently witnessed rising premiums for heavy grades of naphtha, supplies of open-specification naphtha remains more than adequate. 

The balance February paper naphtha crack has managed to climb back above -$ 1 /bbl and is valued higher today at  -$ 0.45 /bbl. 


 Rising inventories continue to pressurize gasoline cracks which touched a near a two-week low of $ 8.32 /bbl on Thursday. Singapore’s onshore light distillates stocks, which mainly comprise gasoline and its blending components rose by 9.2 %, or about 1.2 million bbls, to reach a four-week high of approximately 14 million bbls.

In the Platts Asian Trading Window, Hin Leong continued its buying spree snapping up three out of the four gasoline deals that were concluded.

The balance February paper 92 Ron gasoline crack is valued higher at $ 11.95 /bbl.


Falling inventories have helped prop up distillate cracks which are valued higher this morning. In the week to February 7, Singapore’s onshore middle distillate inventories fell to a two-week low of 9.144 million bbls, down 2 % from the previous week.

The balance February paper gasoil crack is higher at $ 14.55 /bbl. The 10 ppm crack is at $ 15.25 /bbl.  The February regrade has come off and is valued at $ 1.50 /bbl today.

Hedging recommendations made earlier are being retained (until they are squared off). Current values are juxtaposed in (Red)

Cal 2019:   Gasoil 500 ppm $ 16.10 /bbl (15.50): Gasoil 10 ppm $ 17.45 /bbl (16.45): Jet $ 16.85 /bbl (16.20)

Fuel Oil

Ample supplies, high inventories and lackluster demand is keeping the fuel oil market under pressure. In a sign of growing prompt supplies, the March/April time spread for 380-cst fuel oil flipped into a contango of about $ 0.30 /MT on Thursday, down from a backwardation of about $ 0.10 /MT in the previous session.

For the week ended February 7, Singapore’s weekly onshore fuel oil inventories rose for a fourth straight week, climbing 6 % to a 2018 high of 23.782 million bbls

The February 180 cst crack is valued lower at -$ 4.60 /bbl. The visco spread is unchanged at $ 0.85 / bbl.  

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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