Crude Oil

Oil prices were mixed on Friday but posted a fourth straight week of gains ahead of an OPEC+ meeting early next week.

Brent crude January futures rose 38 cents to settle at $48.18 a barrel, while the more active February contract gained 46 cents to $48.25. WTI futures fell 18 cents to settle at $45.53 a barrel.

Brent rose 7.2% over the week, while WTI gained 8% for the week.

The OPEC+ group was planning to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January – about 2% of global consumption – after record supply cuts this year. OPEC+ ministers are due to meet from Monday. Rising Libyan output is also contributing to concerns about oversupply in the market. The OPEC member, which is exempt from the oil cuts, has added more than 1.1 million bpd of output since early September.

China’s Nov’20 factory activity expanded at the fastest pace since Sep’17, with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 52.1 from 51.4 in Oct’20, keeping the country’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis solidly on track.

Japan’s industrial output rose for the fifth straight month in Oct’20, with official data released on Monday showed factory output jumping 3.8% YoY, mainly due to strength in general machinery production and motor vehicle manufacturing. 

covid 19

At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 1,457,546 (+7,299 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 320,000 DoD to 18.06 million.  (Click here for details).


Asia’s naphtha crack rebounded from a near six-month low to end the week at a three-session high of $43.80 a tonne, but this was still about 35% lower versus a month ago as the supply glut persisted.

The December crack is higher at – $1.45 /bbl.


Asia’s gasoline crack jumped to a 2-1/2 week high of $2.14 a barrel.

Gasoline stocks in ARA fell marginally to 1.32 million tonnes, as fewer imports from other northwest European locations arrived at the hub.

The December crack is higher at $2.45 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.


Asia’s benchmark 10ppm diesel crack stayed above $5 a barrel for a fourth day last week, following stock drawdowns in the United States and Singapore. Gasoil stocks in ARA, however, rose 4% in the week to Thursday.

The December crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is steady at $4.45 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 5.25 / bbl. The regrade is at   -$ 0.80 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

Asia’s 0.5% VLSFO front-month time spread fell to a three-week low on Friday.

The Dec/Jan VLSFO time spread slipped to 50 cents a tonne on Friday, its lowest since Nov. 6, and down from $1.75 a tonne at the start of the week.

Residual fuel inventories at ARA jumped 13% from the previous week to a five week high of 1.472 million tonnes in the week ended Nov. 26. Compared with last year, the inventories at the ARA hub were 67% higher and above the five-year seasonal average of 968 KT.

The December crack for 180 cst FO is lower at  -$1.20 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.75 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

No fresh activity today.


Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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