Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Crude prices settled a touch higher on Tuesday on expectations of another outsize U.S. inventory draw for last week, even as market participants remained jittery about forthcoming output hikes for August that producer group OPEC+ was likely to announce.

Brent Crude  finished the session up 14 cents, or 0.2.%, at $74.28 per barrel. Brent lost 1.6% on Monday, also finishing at its lowest in about a week.

WTI crude settled up 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $72.98. In the previous session, WTI fell 1.5% for its lowest settlement since June 22.

Global oil demand will rebound strongly in 2H’21 with oil inventories shrinking, OPEC’s chief and experts said on Tuesday while warning that coronavirus variants pose a risk to the recovery.

India’s fuel demand, hit by a deadly second wave of coronavirus, would recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year, the Indian oil minister said on Tuesday.

Azeri crude and condensate production between Jan-May’21 totaled 14.3 MMT, at an average of 694 KB/D, down 5.4% YoY, data released by Azerbaijan’s energy ministry showed late on 25 Jun’21.

Nigeria’s NNPC has signed term sheets with Dangote Group to buy a 20% stake in the company’s oil refinery under construction in Lagos state, NNPC’s director said on Tuesday.

Another huge crude draw reported by the API yesterday. We, however, remain circumspect about a large draw this week in the light of what we saw in the material balance statement last week. We reproduce it below for ready reference.

As we can see, the crude inventories were under reported by around 10 million barrels last week. We just do not see the room for another massive draw unless the net imports drop dramatically. 


At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 3.95 Million (+7,640 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose fell by around 50,000 DoD to 11.45 million. (Click here for details).

Asia’s naphtha crack was assessed at $102.48 per tonne, from $98.85 per tonne in the previous session.

The July crack is higher at $0.95 / bbl

Asia’s gasoline crack at $6.17 per barrel, from $5.73 per barrel in the previous session.

The July crack is lower at 8.80 / bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Cash differentials 10 ppm gasoil were at a cent lower at a discount of 8 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes on Tuesday.

Cash differentials for jet fuel widened by 5 cents to a discount of 52 cents per barrel on Tuesday.

Scheduled capacity for global airlines has improved 7.3% from May to about 300 million in June, but between end-May and end-June airlines have removed 16 million seats from their schedules, according to OAG.

India’s flight capacity for the week to Monday was 18.2% lower compared with the corresponding period in 2020, while seat capacity in Japan this week was down 22.5% versus a year ago, OAG data showed.

The July crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $5.25 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 7.25 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.55 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

The front-month price differential between Asia’s 10ppm gasoil and 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) rose on Tuesday, snapping six straight sessions of declines as VLSFO prices fell.

The front-month price spread firmed to minus $4.18 a barrel on Tuesday, up from a near one-month low of minus $4.38 a barrel on Monday, Refinitiv data in Eikon showed.

The June crack for 180 cst FO is lower at  -$6.00 /bbl with the visco spread at $1.10 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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