Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Monday after four days of gains on worries about weak Chinese industrial data. Brent crude futures fell 45 cents to settle at $61.57 a barrel. WTI crude futures fell 85 cents to settle at $55.81 a barrel..

Profits at Chinese industrial companies, meanwhile, fell for the second straight month in September as producer prices continued to slide, highlighting the impact of a slowing economy and protracted U.S. trade war on corporate balance sheets.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected to sign a significant part of a trade deal with China ahead of schedule but did not elaborate on the timing. The news comes as a relief to investors who have been grappling with the fallout from the trade war and its impact on the global economy.

Russia’s energy ministry said that the OPEC+ group would factor in any slowdown of U.S. oil output growth when they meet to discuss their output agreement in December. However, Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said it was premature to talk about deeper production cuts.

The EU agreed to a Brexit delay of up to three months on Monday, as the UK Prime Minister said he would push on with his bid to end Britain’s political paralysis with an election on 12 Dec’19.

U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil rigs in October for a record 11 months, under pressure from investors to cut spending on new drilling.

Hedge funds showed signs of trying to pick the bottom in the oil market last week, with small-scale purchases emerging after the wave of heavy selling at the end of Sep’19 and early Oct’19. The ratio of long to short positions, fell to just 2.6:1, down from 8.7:1 in Apr’19 and the lowest since 22 Jan’19.


Asia’s naphtha crack fell for the third straight day to a 2-1/2 week low of $81.03 a tonne on Friday, weighed down by stronger crude and abundant gasoline supplies from China.

The November crack is marginally higher at – $ 2.85 / bbl.


Asia’s gasoline crack reaching a three-session high of $6.92 as falling inventories in Europe and the United States helped to cushion some of the impact from higher stock levels in Singapore..

ARA Gasoline stocks dropped 13% to 889 KT in the week to Thursday, squeezed by high exports.

The November crack is higher at $ 7.30 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.


Cash premiums for 10ppm gasoil rose to $1.13 a barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, compared with $1.06 a barrel on Thursday.

The front-month spread for 10 ppm gasoil remained in steep backwardation to trade at a premium of 93 cents a barrel on Friday.

Cash differentials for jet fuel flipped back to a premium of 35 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, backed by a deal at firmer levels in the Singapore trade window. Jet differentials were at a discount of 8 cents a barrel on Thursday.

Cash differentials for jet fuel  remained unchanged at a discount of 8 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Thursday.

ARA gasoil stocks fell by 119 KT to 2.69 million tonnes, official data showed.

The November crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $ 16.35 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 17.35 / bbl. The regrade is at  – $ 0.10 /bbl 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

The margin for front-month barge 380-cst high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) over Brent crude slipped back towards this week’s record low on Friday on signs of fading demand.

The November 380-cst barge crack widened its discount to minus $28.40 a barrel, down from minus $27.40 in the previous session and approaching Monday’s record low of minus $29.67 a barrel.

ARA residual fuel stocks rose by 41 KT to 1.01 million tonnes, according to official data. 

The November 180 cst crack is lower at -$  15.75 / bbl with the visco spread at  $ 2.05 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

No fresh recommendations today.

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refiner.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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