Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Oil prices dipped Monday on talk that the OPEC+ cartel at its meeting this week will push ahead with plans to produce more despite India’s COVID rampage that will likely hit demand from the world’s third largest crude importer.

Brent crude futures dipped 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $65.03 /bbl. Brent’s session low was $63.94.

WTI crude settled at $61.91 a barrel, down 23 cents, or 0.4%. It fell to a session low of $60.66 prior to that.

Libya’s crude output could rebound soon after the NOC lifted force majeure on exports out of the 250 KB/D Marsa el-Hariga terminal, coming almost a week after a budget row, which had pushed production down under 1 MMB/D.

Libya’s oil production fell to about 1 MMB/D  in recent days and could drop further due to budgetary issues, the NOC said on Thursday. Production fell from about 1.3 MMB/D.

IOC’s refineries are operating at about 95% of their capacity, down from 100% at the same time last month, with industry officials saying there could deeper reductions in output from the country’s refineries in coming days..


At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 3,133,353 (+10,767 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases fell by around 140,000 DoD to 18.77 million. (Click here for details).

India recorded the world’s highest daily tally of 314,835 COVID-19 infections on Thursday as a second wave of the pandemic raised new fears about the ability of crumbling health services to cope.


Asia’s naphtha crack, however, rose for a second straight session on Monday to $80.53 per tonne, compared with $78.90 per tonne on Friday.

The crack weakened by 0.6% to $74.90  /MT from $75.33 the previous day.

Trafigura said on Monday that it had sold the first carbon-offset cargo of naphtha, reflecting a growing trend among firms to market their products as cleaner amid an accelerating energy transition.

The May crack has bounced back strongly to $ 0.40 /bbl

The gasoline crack fell to $5.86 per barrel, a level not seen since March 26. The crack was at $7.21 per barrel on Friday.

This is the lowest in nearly a week after U.S. gasoline stocks rose slightly last week. This was despite a drop in Singapore stocks to the lowest in four months.

Singapore’s light distillates stocks fell 1.268 million barrels to a four-month low of 13.472 million barrels in the week to April 21, Enterprise Singapore data showed on Thursday.

The May crack is lower at $8.60 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Asia’s cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil dropped for the ninth consecutive session on Thursday, plunging to their weakest level in more than five months amid sluggish demand, while Singapore middle distillate inventories rose to a four-week high.

Asia’s cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil narrowed further to a discount of 34 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes. They were at a discount of 38 cents to Singapore quotes the previous day.

Cash discounts for jet fuel were at 7 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Monday, compared with a 6-cent discount at the end of last week.

A long-delayed travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore will begin on May 26, the two cities said on Monday, as they moved to re-establish overseas travel links and lift the hurdle of quarantine for visiting foreigners. The scheme will start with one flight a day into each city, with up to 200 travellers on each flight, Hong Kong’s Commerce Secretary Edward Yau and Singapore’s Transport Minister Ong Ye Ku said at simultaneous press events.

Global scheduled airline capacity for the week starting 26 Apr’21 was up 1.2% WoW to 61.9 million seats, as a small rise in North East Asia and Western Europe offset a drop in South Asia, according to OAG.

The May crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is higher at $5.75 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.95 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.30 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

The front-month time spread of Asia’s 180-cst high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) market flipped to a discount on Monday as a sluggish near term demand outlook from regional utilities weighs on market sentiment, trade sources said.

The front-month 180-cst HSFO time spread dropped to minus 25 cents a tonne on Monday, down from a 75 cent per tonne premium on Friday and the lowest since Jan. 26, according to Refinitiv data in Eikon.

The May crack for 180 cst FO is lower at  -$3.55 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.80 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

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About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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