Oil Price Digest 22-May-17

Crude Oil

Crude finished the previous week strongly after news that the cuts may be extended into 1Q18.  Brent settled $1.10 higher at $53.61 per barrel while WTI settled above $ 50 per barrel for the first time in a while at $50.33 per barrel.

Rumors that cuts will not only be extended, but also deepened seem to be fueling a further rise this morning.

On the bearish side, Baker Hughes reported a further increase of 8 rigs bringing the total number of rigs deployed up to 720, the highest level since April 2015.In the midst of all this, hedge funds have reduced positions on WTI futures and options by 9,710 contracts to 184,312 contracts.

The daily chart shows strong bullish momentum from the time the MACD has crossed over.  With the 50 DMA having been established as a support base, crude is now challenging the 100 DMA and is also looking to settle above a long term trend line.  The weekly chart shows a settle above the 13 Week Moving Average (this, in addition to being a Fibonacci Number, is also a quarterly moving average).  The weekly chart also shows that prices have been moving within a slowly rising channel with the current levels just about approaching the middle of the channel

Immediate supports below are $52.81, $ 52.21 (100 DMA) and then $ 51.63.  Resistances above are at $ 53.87 and then $ 54.27.

Physical buyers of Naphtha emerged after a lull of a few days to pick up cargoes at slightly lower prices to the previous week.

The June Japan Naphtha- Dubai crack further strengthened to -$1.4 /bbl.

Gasoline

Gasoline cracks surged today. The immediate reaction for the rise in prices is not clear, especially with a build in ARA stocks to 1.05 million barrels. Traders anticipate a late surge in the latter half of the driving season due to ‘lower prices.

The June crack is valued at $ 11.0  today.

Distillates

Gasoil cracks too are seen to be strengthening in the backdrop of gasoil purchases out of India and Vietnam.  Any delay in the restart of the HMEL Bathinda refinery could well provide just the fillip that the crack needs.  The crack is valued at around $ 10.25 /bbl for June. The regrade continues to be valued at 35 cents/bbl today.

Fuel Oil

While the Singapore markets showed keen interest in 380 cst supplies for June, a surge in ARA stocks to 889 KT, a rise of 104 KT over the previous week. The June 180cst-Dubai crack was lower at -$ 3.4 / bbl. The Visco spread was unchanged at $ 1.15 / bbl

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity