Crude Oil

Oil fell more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday on concerns about excess global crude supply and limited progress toward resolving the US-China trade dispute that has clouded the outlook for oil demand. Brent crude futures settled at $60.91 a barrel, down $ 1.55 cents. WTI crude  fell $ 1.84 to settle at $55.21 a barrel.

The US would raise tariffs on Chinese imports if no deal is reached with Beijing to end a trade war, the US President said on Tuesday, threatening an escalation of the spat that has damaged economic growth worldwide.

Japan’s exports tumbled at their quickest pace in three years in Oct’19, falling 9.2% YoY according to Ministry of Finance data, threatening to tip the trade-reliant economy into recession as weakening demand from US and China darkened the outlook.

The US broke off talks with South Korea on increasing Seoul’s contribution to the costs of hosting US troops, after the two sides failed to narrow their differences on Tuesday in a row that has raised questions about the American deployment.

Germany’s manufacturing production is expected to decline 4% this year, with exports edging up just half a percentage point, as its export-reliant manufacturers are being hit by trade disputes and China’s cooling economy, as well as uncertainty linked to Brexit.

Iraq’s crude production and exports continue at full throttle despite the recent violent demonstrations in the country, but analysts said the situation bears close watching as oil fields and ports could be vulnerable to escalating protests.

Naphtha

No fresh news on the naphtha markets.

The December crack is much higher at – $ 2.20 / bbl.

Gasoline

No fresh news on the gasoline markets.

The December crack is higher at $ 8.10 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Distillates

No fresh news on distillate markets.

The December crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower $ 13.10 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 14.10 / bbl. The regrade is at   $ 0.85 /bbl 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

The front-month barge 380-cst high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) margin over Brent crude narrowed its discount to minus $32.21 per barrel, down from minus $31.66 in the previous session, data from Refinitiv Eikon showed.

By comparison, the front-month Singapore 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) crack against Brent crude was assessed at $15.79 a barrel on Tuesday, down a two-week high of $16.75 a barrel on Monday.

The December 180 cst crack is lower at -$  23.35 / bbl with the visco spread at  $ 2.15 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

Today we have closed a position that was opened literally on the first trading day of this year. The closure of this position puts to rest market hopes of the demand for LSFO impacting gasoil cracks seriously. No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refiner.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

2 Thoughts to “Oil Price Digest 20-Nov-2019”

  1. Stephen

    where do you get your regrade values? i see very different values.

    1. admin

      Hi,

      Sorry for the late response.

      My values are based on fair market values shared by a reputable marketer. These reflect Jet-500 ppm Gasoil in case that is the cause for the difference in what we are looking at.

Leave a Comment