Crude Oil

Crude oil futures had another lacklustre day on Friday.  Brent gained 2 cents to close at $ 51.76 / bbl. WTI gained 3 cents to settle at $ 48.75 /bbl.


There was no other data to assuage market fears of a limited rise in crude price, if at all.  Baker Hughes data showed that 14 new rigs were pressed into service, thereby reinforcing the expectation of higher US production offsetting supply cuts.  Secondly, speculators cut their long positions in WTI by 86,000 contracts. This is the biggest reduction in one week ever!  An analysis by Reuters showed that supplies of crude oil to Asia in March had increased to 714 million barrels in the month of March, up 3% from December supplies.  This would suggest that the market is awash with oil notwithstanding the production cuts.

On the positive side, six out of ten analysts polled, believed that OPEC would extend the production cuts.

Technical Analysis

Technically, both the daily and the weekly charts show Brent crude sitting on critical 200 Day and 50 Day moving averages respectively.  The daily charts have been showing doji candles for the last couple of days where as the weekly chart has shown a doji candle after a long filled candle.  These are reflective of the uncertainty prevailing in the market.  The single clue that may be drawn from a comparison of this charts is that the weekly MACD (not shown here) seems to have increased inspite of having a positive candle for the week.

Supports for Brent lie at 50.92 and then 49.98 below.  Resistances are at 51.94, 54.37 and then 58.30 for now.

Demand for physical Naphtha remained firm notwithstanding ample supplies in the market. The MOPJ crack for April is valued at $ 0.1.1 /bbl.  The Singapore crack for April is at -$ 0.75 /bbl.


Gasoline cracks edged upwards today over the weekend. The April crack is valued at $ 10.45 /bbl.

Middle Distillates

Gasoil cracks have marginally eased today.  The April crack is valued at $ 11.0 / bbl.  Regrade value for April is around -$0.5.
180 CST Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil cracks have eased a bit today notwithstanding a small drop in Singapore stocks.  The high level of European stocks seem to be putting a cap on the improvement in the crack.  The April crack is valued at  -$ 3.85/bbl today.

About this blog

 This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.
Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity


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