Crude Oil
U.S. crude futures eased slightly on Friday as worries about the global economy and robust U.S. production put a brake on prices.. Brent crude settled 7 cents lower at $67.16 a barrel. WTI crude futures fell 9 cents to settle at $58.52 a barrel.
U.S. crude ended the week 4.1 percent higher, and Brent was up 1.9 percent.
The International Energy Agency said on Friday that the market could show a modest surplus in the first quarter of 2019 before flipping into a deficit in the second quarter by about 500 kbpd. It said a comfortable supply cushion by OPEC could prevent any price rally in case of possible disruptions and that non-OPEC oil output growth led by the United States should ensure demand is met.
U.S. energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, with drilling slowing to its lowest in nearly a year, prompting the government to cut crude output growth forecasts. Oil price gains have been limited by concerns that an economic slowdown that has gripped large parts of Asia and Europe will dent growth in fuel demand. But oil consumption has held up so far.
Crude oil use in China, the world’s biggest importer, in the first two months of 2019 rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier to a record 12.68 million bpd, official data showed this week.
U.S. manufacturing output fell for a second straight month in February and factory activity in New York state hit nearly a two-year low this month, offering further evidence of a sharp slowdown in economic growth early in the first quarter.
Naphtha
Asia’s naphtha crack ended the week at a 2-1/2 month high of $57.55 a tonne as demand from petrochemical makers provided support. South Korea’s Hanwha Total bought three cargoes totalling an average of 75,000 tonnes for second-half April arrival at Daesan at premiums of about $6 a tonne to Japan quotes on a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis. This was slightly higher than the $5 a tonne premium Hanwha Total had paid on Feb. 26 for first-half April delivery cargoes. This brought the total number of volumes bought this week for second-half April delivery from Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia to more than 320,000 tonnes.
The April crack is at -$ 5.65 /bbl
Gasoline
No fresh news on the gasoline markets today.
Light Distillate stocks in ARA fell by 52 KT to 1.07 million tonnes.
The April crack is at $ 4.85 /bbl
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.
Distillates
Cash discounts for 10ppm gasoil widened to 12 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, compared with a 9-cent discount a day earlier.
Cash differentials for jet fuel were at a discount of 31 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes, as against a discount of 26 cents per barrel a day earlier.
Middle Distillate stocks in ARA fell by 67 kt to 2.34 million tonnes. This is a seven week low
The April crack is at $ 12.75 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $13.70 /bbl. The regrade is at $ 0.20/bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.
Fuel Oil
Cash premiums for Asia’s 380-cst high-sulphur fuel oil fell for a fourth straight session on Friday and hit a fresh 11-month low due to weak demand and ample supplies.
380-cst cash premiums fell to $0.84 a tonne to Singapore quotes, from $1.01 per tonne in the previous session, and 73 percent lower than a $3.07 per tonne premium at the start of the week.
Fuel stocks held in ARA snapped three straight weekly declines, climbing 8 percent to 0.894 million tonnes in the week to March 14. ARA fuel oil inventories were 23 percent higher than year-ago levels, but below the five-year average of 1.019 million tonnes for this time of the year.
The April 180 cst crack is at $ 0.40 / bbl with the visco spread at $ 1.00 cents/bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.
Hedge Recommendations
No fresh hedges to consider today.
Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refiner.
Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.