Crude Oil

Oil prices were little changed amid modest volumes on the last day of a shortened week. Brent futures rose by 3 cents to $ 55.89 / bbl while WTI rose 7 cents to settle at $ 53.18 /bbl.

While Thursday was markedly muted, the week belonged to the bulls. Oil has recouped almost the entire price loss it encountered in March. In terms of market outlook too, the bullishness persists.  CFTC data revealed that speculators have increased their net length in WTI futures and options positions.  This increase has come about largely b

The previous time it had reached these levels we had mentioned that it would be difficult to maintain the same momentum to propel it much higher.  Those factors still exist and are bearing even more weight.  The Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase in the number of rigs drilling to 683. The IEA cut its estimate for demand growth in 2017 by 40 Kbd.  It further said that even the current estimate of growth of 1.3 Mbd could be optimistic.

Oil producers, for now, seem to be in a pretty position.  All they have to do over the next month is keep alive the possibility of an extension of the production cuts and, in the absence of any terribly bearish data, will keep prices propped up.

Technical Analysis


The daily charts show that while crude prices have stayed within a rising channel all week, they will need to rise significantly to stay within this channel over the next few sessions.  The slope of the channel would suggest that it is a tall order. Practically speaking, prices would have to settle over $ 56.55 to just enter this channel and close above $ 58.30 by the end of the week to stay in the channel.  The weekly charts show a similar channel but this is not as steep as the daily chart and calls for a close just above $ 56.75 to remain in the channel.

Bearish divergences continue to show in both CCI and the MACD indicators indicating caution while trading from the long side.

Supports lie at $ 55.15, $ 54.84 and then $ 54.46 below.  Resistances are currently at $ 56.35, $ 56.55 and then in the $57.00- $57.15 range.


Naphtha markets continued to strengthen on Friday as buyer demand persisted. The April Japan Naphtha Crack is valued today at $ 0.65 /bbl. The May crack is now almost flat at  – $ 0.1 /bbl.  Singapore Naphtha – Dubai is valued at -$ 0.6 /bbl in April and -$1.70 in May


Gasoline cracks have eased a little today. The April crack is valued at  $ 12.3 /bbl. The May-June spread is steady at 30 cents / bbl.

Middle Distillates

Gasoil cracks are marginally higher today.  The value of the April Gasoil crack is $ 12.55 / bbl and May is $11.80/bbl.  The regrade is steady to marginally lower.  April is valued at -$ 0.70/bbl.  and May at -$ 0.20 /bbl today.

180 CST Fuel Oil

Fuel oil cracks have stayed steady notwithstanding a 3% build in stocks.  That this build occurred even after imports had dropped 38% fall in net imports to 751 KT.  Trading activity in 380 cst cargos seems to have taken a breather as just 4 cargos were traded on Thursday.

Balance April is valued at -$ 3.76 and May at -$ 4.10

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity


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