16 Mar 2017
oil-barrel

Crude Oil

Crude oil futures staged a sharp recovery in the light of bullish DOE data.  Brent gained 89 cents to close at $ 51.81 / bbl. WTI gained $ 1.14 to settle at $ 48.86 /bbl.

 

There appears to be further follow through recovery today as Brent is higher by 37 cents at $ 52.09.  While the US reported a stock draw yesterday, Global Oil inventories reported a build in the month of January according to IEA.  This is being attributed to a delayed response to a swell in production. The IEA goes on to estimate that if production cuts are maintained at current levels, there could be a decline of 500 kbpd in H1 2017. Current stock levels are reported at 3.03 Billion barrels.

DOE Stock Data

The DOE reported a draw of 237 KB in the last week, the first reported draw in 9 weeks. US crude imports fell to 6.7 mbd, the impact of large declines in OPEC shipments.

Gasoline stocks fell by 3.1 Million barrels, lalso a bit more than expected.  Distillate stocks too fell by 4.2 million barrels.

Refinery runs fell further to 85.1%. Basiscally, this would imply that the product stock situation should change when refineries emerge from turn around or should cracks go higher.

Naphtha

The physical market saw spirited buying attracted by the discounts available to the markets.  However, this did not impact the cracks much.  The MOPJ crack for March is valued at  $ 1.1 / bbl. and April at $ 1.0 /bbl.  The Singapore crack for March is valued at  – $ 0.6 /bbl whereas April is at -$ 0.8 /bbl. This is the same as yesterday’s levels

Gasoline 

Gasoline cracks lost a little bit of ground today notwithstanding the strong draws in the US.

The April crack is valued at $ 10.6 /bbl.

Middle Distillates

Gasoil cracks too lost ground today.  The March crack is now at $11.4 / bbl  while the April crack is at $ 11.2 / bbl.  Regrade values are at -$1.10 and -$0.60 respectively.
In a rare move, a cargo from South Africa is expected to be exported to Singapore.  The market is awash with exports from China which have seen the differential between high sulfur and low sulfur gasoil drop to  as low as 5 cents / bbl before stabilising.

180 CST Fuel Oil

The Fuel Oil is going on losing steam as fundamentals and supply demand balances are presently unable to justify the crack levels.  The March crack is valued at  -$ 4.20/bbl and April around -$ 4.1/bbl.

About this blog

 This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.
Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

 

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