Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Worries over what OPEC+ will do for August production and the likely impact of the Covid Delta variant in the coming months on oil demand sent crude prices down hard for a second day in a row Thursday.

Brent Crude fell $1.29, or 1.7%, to finish the session at $73.47 per barrel. Brent lost 2.3% on Wednesday.

WTI crude futures settled down $1.48, or 2%, at $71.65 a barrel. WTI lost 2.8% in the previous session.

China’s crude throughput in May rose 4.4% year on year to hit a record high of 60.5 million mt, marking the first time it has crossed 60 million mt in a month, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics June 16 showed.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now close to finalising an agreement that would allow more supply into the market.

OPEC said on Thursday it expects world oil demand to increase next year to around levels seen before the pandemic, about 100 million barrels per day (bpd), led by demand growth in the U.S., China and India.

OPEC output in June increased by 590,000 bpd to 26.03 million bpd, a report showed.



At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 4.08 Million (+8,502 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by 200,000 DoD to 12.49 million. (Click here for details).


Asia’s naphtha crack was assessed at $133.38 per tonne, from $133.58 per tonne in the previous session. 

The August crack is higher at $3.20 / bbl

Asia’s gasoline crack was assessed at $8.55 per barrel, from $8.31 per barrel in the previous session.

Singapore light distillates stocks rose 321,000 barrels to a three-month high of 14.573 million barrels in the week of July 14, according to data released on Thursday by Enterprise Singapore.

The August crack is higher at $10.75 / bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil were 6 cents higher at a discount of 6 cents per barrel on Thursday.

Middle-distillate inventories in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone rose 1.9% to 3.7 million barrels in the week ended July 12, data via S&P Global Platts showed. The weekly stocks in Fujairah have averaged 3.9 million barrels this year, compared with 4.2 million barrels in 2020, Reuters calculations showed.

Singapore middle distillates stocks slipped 0.9% to a five-week low of 11.5 million barrels in the week to July 14, according to Enterprise Singapore data. Weekly Singapore middle distillate inventories have averaged 13.6 million barrels this year, compared with an average of 13.9 million barrels in 2020, Reuters calculations showed. This week’s stocks were down 14.1% than a year earlier.

Cash differentials for jet fuel stayed unchanged at a discount of 39 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes.

The August crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is unchanged at $6.25 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 8.25 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.10 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Asia’s front-month 380-cst high-sulphur fuel oil crack jumped on Thursday, supported by firming feedstock demand from utilities and refiners as well as weaker crude oil prices. 

The front-month crack discount narrowed to $7.50 a tonne below Dubai crude, up from a near two-month low of minus $8.33 a tonne on Wednesday, Refinitiv data on Eikon showed.

Since the start of June, the front-month 380-cst HSFO crack averaged at a $6.94 per barrel discount to Dubai crude compared to an average discount of $3.68 a barrel over the same period last year and minus $1.17 a barrel in 2019.

Singapore Fuel Oil stocks  rose 1% to a two-week high of 23.09 million barrels, or 3.64 million tonnes in the week ended July 14, moving away from a three-and-a-half-month low hit in the previous week, as Singapore exports dropped to a nine-week low, official data showed on Thursday.

The August crack for 180 cst FO is higher at  -$6.00 /bbl with the visco spread at $1.25 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh trades today. We will lay on one tranche more of Jap-Nap Dubai should the crack climb above $ 3.50 per bbl.

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

Leave a Comment