Crude Oil
Oil prices were marginally higher in choppy trade on Monday.
Brent crude futures for February ended the session 32 cents, or 0.6%, higher at $50.29 a barrel, while WTI futures for January settled up 42 cents, or 0.9%, at $46.99 a barrel.
Prices slid more than 1% earlier in the session after OPEC said global oil demand would rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought because of the lingering impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
India’s oil imports fell 3.3% MoM in Nov’20 to 3.9 MB/D, with imports from Africa and the US rising sharply, while those from the from the Middle East and Latin America fell, data obtained from industry sources showed.
OPEC+ has postponed meetings of its Joint Technical Committee and Ministerial Monitoring Committee until 3-4 Jan’21, OPEC said in a statement on Monday. The meetings had been scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Hedge fund managers purchased petroleum futures and options last week for the 5th week in a row, buying the equivalent of 38 MB, betting the rollout of coronavirus vaccines will boost international aviation and business activity from early next year.
covid 19
At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 1,627,419 (+8,529 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 70,000 DoD to 20.24 million. (Click here for details).
Naphtha
Asia’s naphtha crack eased to a four-session low of $66.08 a tonne.
Total naphtha flows into Asia for December are seen at about 6 million tonnes versus November’s volumes of 5.7 million tonnes to 5.8 million tonnes.
The January crack is unchanged at – $0.00 /bbl.
Gasoline
Asia’s gasoline crack rose to a 4-1/2-week high of $2.71 a barrel on Monday, as personal mobility in pockets of Asia improved.
India’s fuel consumption rose for a third straight month in November, helped by reviving transportation and business activity, although a year-on-year fall pointed to a sluggish economic recovery. Novembers gasoline sales in India rose by 0.4% from October and 5.1% from a year earlier to 2.66 million tonnes.
The January crack is lower at $3.20 /bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.
Distillates
Asian refining margins for jet fuel rose on Monday, buoyed by an uptick in passenger traffic on some domestic flight routes and firmer air cargo demand ahead of the peak holiday season.
Cracks, for jet fuel rose 36 cents to $4.83 per barrel over Dubai crude during Asian trading hours, hovering close to a near nine-month peak touched last week.
Cash differentials for jet fuel were at a discount of 27 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes, compared with a discount of 26 cents per barrel on Friday.
The January crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is higher at $5.65 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.45 / bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.60 /bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.
Fuel Oil
Asia’s cash premium for 0.5% VLSFO was at 9 cents per tonne to Singapore quotes, the weakest since Sept. 24. It was at a premium of 26 cents per tonne on Friday.
The front-month VLSFO crack rose 39 cents to $10.13 per barrel against Dubai crude during Asian trading hours. The VLSFO cracks, however, have shed about 0.5% in the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, the 380-cst HSFO barge crack for January was at a discount of $6.74 a barrel to Brent, compared with minus $7.05 a barrel on Friday.
Singapore’s sales of marine fuels climbed 2.7% in November to an eight-month high of 4.263 million tonnes, in the latest sign of a rebound in global shipping activity. Bunkering volumes were 4.6% higher from the same period last year, marking a fifth straight on-year gain, data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) showed, underscoring the rapid recovery in ship refuelling activities to above pre-coronavirus levels.
The January crack for 180 cst FO is higher at -$2.20 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.80 /bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.
Hedge Recommendations
No fresh action today.
Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.
Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.