Crude Oil

Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, supported by robust economic data from China. 

Brent futures rose 73 cents to settle at $42.45 per barrel. WTI futures rose 77 cents to settle at $39.43 per barrel.

The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook that in its central scenario a vaccine and therapeutics could mean the global economy rebounds in 2021 and energy demand recovers by 2023.

World oil demand will rise by 6.54 MB/D in 2021 to 96.84 MB/D, OPEC said in a monthly report, 80 KB/D less than the previous growth forecast a month ago, adding to headwinds faced by the group and its allies in balancing the market.

OPEC and its allies are still intending to taper their crude oil production cuts by almost 2 MB/D at the start of 2021, the UAE energy minister said 13 Oct’20.

China, the world’s top crude oil importer, took in 11.8 MB/D of oil in Sep’20, up 5.5% MoM and 17.5% YoY, but still below the record high level of 12.94 MB/D in Jun’20, customs data showed.

China auto sales marked a sixth straight month of gain, rebounding a solid 12.8% in Sep’20 to hit 2.57 million vehicle sales, as the world’s biggest vehicle market comes off lows hit during the coronavirus lockdown.

covid 19

At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 1,090,247 (+5,011 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 70,000 DoD to 8.42 million.  (Click here for details).


Asia’s naphtha crack climbed to a five-session high of $90.85 a tonne.

The November crack is lower at $ 2.30 /bbl


Asia’s gasoline crack fell for a sixth straight session on Tuesday and hit a fresh one-month low of $2.73 a barrel.

The November crack is lower at $ 3.30 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.


Asian refining margins for 10 ppm gasoil slipped on Tuesday, as feedstock crude prices gained, while cash differentials for the industrial fuel edged higher amid steady buying interest for physical cargoes.

Cash discounts for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content were at 46 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes, the smallest since Aug. 28. They were at 50 cents a barrel on Monday.

The gasoil EFS traded around minus $5 per tonne on Tuesday, making it unworkable for arbitrage shipments.

The November crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $2.85 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 3.65 / bbl. The regrade is at   -$ 1.90 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

Asia’s 0.5% VLSFO crack climbed to a near six-month high on Tuesday amid tightening supplies amid lower arbitrage inflows and narrower refinery output due to run cuts.

The front-month VLSFO crack rose to $9.25 a barrel above Dubai crude, the highest since April 21. 

The November crack for 180 cst FO is higher at – $1.15 /bbl with the visco spread at $1.05 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

No fresh action today.

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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