Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the trade awaited the release of weekly inventory data on U.S. petroleum supply-demand. 

Brent rose settled up 39 cents, or 0.6%, at $63.67. WTI settled up 48 cents, or 0.8%, at $59.64 per barrel.

Libya pumped 1.283 MMB/D of crude in Mar’21, up 100 KB/D from Feb’21, the North African producer revealed to OPEC in the producer group’s latest monthly oil market report.

OPEC on Tuesday raised its demand growth forecast to 5.95 MMB/D in 2021, up 70 KB/D from last month, on expectations the pandemic will subside, providing help for the group and its allies in their efforts to support the market.

China’s crude oil imports jumped 21% in March from a low base of comparison a year earlier as refiners ramped up operations amid robust fuel demand post-COVID-19, although purchases slowed ahead of the maintenance season.

Iran said on Tuesday it will start enriching uranium to 60% purity, a move bringing the fissile material closer to levels suitable for a bomb, after accusing Israel of sabotaging a key nuclear installation.

api data

The API has reported a much higher build in gasoline stocks than expected which does not augur well for the markets.  We shall await official data tomorrow.


At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 2,971,238 (+12,848 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 150,000 DoD to 24.01 million. (Click here for details)

Asia’s naphtha crack extended losses to a fourth straight session on Tuesday, dropping to a near four-month low of $86.18 a tonne, down from $91.63 a tonne in the previous session and $101.25 a tonne at the start of last week.

Refinery turnarounds in North Asia weakened the demand outlook for naphtha as steam crackers were taken offline, trade sources said.

The May crack is higher at $ 0.20 /bbl

Asia’s gasoline crack was also lower on Tuesday, down 10 cents from the previous session to $6.42 a barrel, due to signs of rising supplies and a spike in coronavirus cases in some Asian countries, including Thailand and India.

The gasoline crack climbed to a two-session high of $6.52 a barrel on Monday, up from $6.39 a barrel in the previous session.

The May crack is lower at $8.70 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil dipped 6 cents on Tuesday to a discount of 12 cents per barrel.

Cash discounts for jet fuel were at 61 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes on Monday, compared with a discount of 59 cents per barrel on Monday.

Scheduled seat capacity for global airlines this week dropped 1.4% from last week, according to aviation data firm OAG. Global air carriers have removed 13 million seats from their May schedules this week, while June capacity was also cut by 5.3 million seats, weighed down by fresh virus waves in Europe, South America and parts of Asia, according to OAG.

The May crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $5.50 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.60 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 1.00 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Asia’s 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) time-spread and cash premiums climbed to multi-week highs on Tuesday as some industry participants expected arbitrage flows to taper off in the coming months following strong inflows in March and April.

The balance of April/May VLSFO time spread rose 50 cents to a $2.50 a tonne on Tuesday while the May/June time spread jumped by $1 to $2.25 a tonne, according to Refinitiv data in Eikon.

VLSFO cash premiums also firmed to a near one-month high of $1.15 a tonne to Singapore quotes despite continued absence of cargo trades in the Singapore window.

The May crack for 180 cst FO is higher at  -$3.60 /bbl with the visco spread at $1.00 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

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About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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