Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Oil prices dipped on Friday as demand concerns refused to go away notwithstanding progress on vaccination. 

Brent crude settled down 25 cents, or 0.4%, on Friday at $62.95 per barrel.  For the week, Brent was down 3%.

WTI settled down 28 cents, or 0.5%, at $59.32 per barrel. For the week, WTI fell 3.5%. 

Much of the week’s price drop was due to a 4% slump on Monday as traders reacted to a decision by producer alliance OPEC+ to ease output cuts between May and July, despite a less-than-rosy second quarter outlook.

The White House is agreeable to ending the sanctions, provided Tehran shows proof that its nuclear program isn’t capable of producing an atomic bomb. Iran is, however, demanding the sanctions be removed first before it makes such concessions.

Kuwait’s KPC raised its OSPs for Apr’21 for crude bound for Asia and cut its OSPs for crude headed to Europe and the US, according to a notice seen by S&P Global Platts on 9 Apr’21.

India’s fuel consumption rose in Mar’21 for the first time in three months, to its highest since Dec’19 at 18.8 MMT (+17.9% YoY, +8.7% MoM), as economic activity gradually picked up after a coronavirus-induced slowdown. This, however, could be election driven.

US energy firms kept the number of oil rigs unchanged in the week to 9 Apr’21 to total 337 (-167 YoY), the highest since late Apr’20, according to Baker Hughes.

Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions by 18,604 contracts to total 375,436 in the week to 6 Apr’21, the US CFTC said on Friday.


At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 2,949,142 (+7,991 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 750,000 over the weekend to 23.82 million. (Click here for details)

India reported another record number of new COVID-19 infections on Friday, with daily deaths also hitting their highest in more than five months.

Asia’s naphtha crack weakened to $94.43 a tonne, the lowest since March 18, from $96.30 a tonne in the previous session.

The May crack is lower at $ 0.70 /bbl

Asia’s gasoline cracks fell for a third session on Friday, while regional demand outlook remains cloudy as the new wave of COVID-19 pandemic hit several countries.

The gasoline crack fell to $6.39 a barrel, the lowest since March 29, from $6.54 a barrel in the previous session.

The May crack is higher at $8.90 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Cash differentials for 10 ppm gasoil remained unchanged on Friday at a discount of 1 cent per barrel, while April/May time spread for the industrial fuel grade widened its contango structure by a cent to minus 8 cents per barrel.

China’s diesel exports in April are expected to drop below last month’s total of 2.9 million tonnes as both state-owned and teapot refineries enter turnarounds this month, but the downside would likely be limited by high domestic inventories, according to Refinitiv Oil Research assessments.

Cash discounts for jet fuel were at 60 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, compared with a discount of 61 cents per barrel on Thursday.

The May crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is higher at $5.75 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.85 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 1.20 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Asia’s prompt month 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) crack against Dubai crude extended gains on Friday, ending the week higher amid a balancing fundamental supply and demand outlook, trade sources said.

The April VLSFO crack was at a near four-week high of $12.53 a barrel above Dubai crude prices, up from $12.26 a barrel in the previous session and $11.55 on Monday, data from Refinitiv Eikon showed.

The prompt-month VLSFO time spread also jumped to a near four-week high of $1.75 a tonne, up from 75 cents a tonne on Thursday, Refinitiv data showed.

The May crack for 180 cst FO is higher at  -$4.45 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.95 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

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About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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