Crude Oil

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as COVID-19 cases surged in the United States and Europe, counteracting optimism that arose over vaccine advancements.

Brent crude settled 5 cents higher at $48.79 per barrel. WTI futures fell 16 cents to settle at $45.60 a barrel.

The market is also closely watching U.S. lawmakers’ efforts to approve a new economic stimulus package needed to drive jobs growth and energy demand, and Friday was eyed as a possible deadline to avoid a government shutdown.

OPEC+ in Nov’20 pumped their most crude oil since implementing historic production cuts in May’20, at 25.21 MB/D, the latest S&P Global Platts survey found, driven largely by Libya’s brisk recovery and a rebound in the UAE’s output.

ADNOC has informed some term buyers that it will reduce the contractual volume of crude loading in Jan’21. The supply of its Murban crude grade will be reduced by 20%, while the volume of Upper Zakum and Das will be cut by 15%, sources said.

US crude oil production is expected to fall by 910 KB/D in 2020 to 11.34 MB/D, while output next year is expected to slide by 240 KB/D to 11.10 MB/D, the US EIA said on Tuesday.

api data

The data from the API was, once again, decidedly bearish as builds were reported across the board. We will await DOE data today.

covid 19

At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 1,562,086 (+11,714 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 160,000 DoD to 19.54 million.  (Click here for details).


Asia’s naphtha crack rose for the second day on Tuesday to reach $58.13 a tonne, supported by strong demand.

Prices of lighter grade naphtha in South Korea, Asia’s largest importer, started trending into the positive zone on Dec. 4 after hovering at discount levels since the second-half October.

Total naphtha flows to Asia for December are seen at 5.5 to 6 million tonnes versus the previous month’s forecast of about 6 million tonnes.

The January crack is steady at + $0.05 /bbl.


No fresh news on the Asia gasoline markets.

The January crack is steady at $2.65 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.


Cash differentials for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content were at a discount of 13 cents a barrel over Singapore quotes on Tuesday, compared with a discount of 22 cents per barrel a day earlier.

Cash differentials for jet fuel flipped into a discount of 2 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Tuesday, compared with a premium of 3 cents on Monday.

Global air passenger demand in Oct’20 was 71% lower YoY, representing disappointingly slow progress, the IATA said 8 Dec’20, adding capacity was down 60%. Sep’20 demand was 72% lower YoY.

The January crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $4.75 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 5.55 / bbl. The regrade is at   -$ 0.65 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

The prompt-month time spread of Asia’s 180-cst HSFO dropped on Tuesday amid further signs of a slowdown in demand from utilities after Pakistan’s state oil importer cancelled another import tender due in January.

The balance of Dec/Jan 180-cst HSFO time spread fell to a 4-1/2 month low of minus $3 a tonne on Tuesday, down from minus 25 cents a tonne on Monday.

The January crack for 180 cst FO is steady at  -$1.65 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.70 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

No fresh activity today.

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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