Crude Oil

Oil fell below $43 a barrel on Friday as a resurgence of coronavirus cases raised concern that fuel demand growth could stall.

Brent crude fell 38 centsto settle at $42.76 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 44 cents to settle at $40.21 a barrel.

Brent marked a weekly gain of 4% even as the US was on a holiday.

The rise in cases suggested U.S. jobs growth, which jumped in June, could suffer a setback.

Covid 19

At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 536,445 (+3,572 DoD) yesterday, with the total number of confirmed infections at 11,550,542 (+175,499 DoD). (Click here for details).


Asia’s naphtha crack ended the week at a session low of $82.90 a tonne, still 76% higher from a month ago as supplies were seen tighter.

The August crack has shot up to $ 0.40 /bbl 


Asia’s gasoline crack jumped 33% to a two-session high of $1.97 a barrel premium over Brent crude.

ARA gasoline stocks fell by almost 9% in the week to Thursday.

The August crack is higher at $3.20 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.


Cash premiums for 10-ppm gasoil dropped to 67 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Friday, from 84 cents per barrel a day earlier.

Meanwhile, gasoil loadings out of Asia in June were seen at a five-year low of 6.75 million tonnes, down from 9.12 million tonnes in May, mainly due to improving demand from within Asia.

India’s gasoil exports in June were at a one-year-low of 1.81 million tonnes, while China’s exports for the month closed at a five-year low of around 823 KT.

Gasoil stocks held independently in ARA refining and storage hub fell 5.5% to 2.6 million tonnes in the week to July 2. ARA jet fuel inventories rose 2.6% to 944,000 tonnes. Compared with a year earlier, jet fuel stocks were 16.8% higher, while gasoil inventories were down 10.9%.

The August crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is higher at $6.00 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 6.80 / bbl. The regrade is at   -$ 3.90 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Fuel Oil

Cash differentials for cargoes of Asia’s 380-cst HSFO rose to a three-month high on Friday, boosted by a surge in buying interest for cargoes of the fuel in the Singapore trading window.

Cash discounts for 380-cst HSFO cargoes narrowed to minus $1.70 a tonne to Singapore quotes, up from minus $2.90 a tonne in the previous session and its narrowest discount since April 2.

Fuel oil stocks in ARA refining and storage rose 2% from the previous week to 1.533 million tonnes in the week to July 2. Compared with last year, the ARA fuel oil inventories are up 27% and well above the five-year seasonal average of 1.202 million tonnes.

The August crack for 180 cst FO is steady at – $3.40 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.90 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

Hedge Recommendations

No fresh action today.

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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