The fact that crude couldn’t get significantly higher on what seems to be definitely bullish news is the impact of supplies creating an overhang.
We take a brief look at Brent charts below (source Oilprice.com)
While we do not claim expertise in technical analysis, a couple of points we would like to draw your attention to.
First of all, the candle posted on Friday was another ‘spinning top’ indicating that markets are uncertain in terms of which direction to head. We have been repeatedly stating that a correction is at least due, if not overdue. This needs to be carefully watched. We are however getting a contrary signal from the weekly charts which are showing a positive move after many weeks of spinning tops. For now, the trigger to watch is the previous high of $ 58.35 per bbl. On the lower side, a neat trendline seems to be forming which could act as supports. If the trend line breaks, the bottom of the trend line at $ 53.80 should act as a first line of support.
While crude prices are buoyed, the sheer length of the bulls makes it susceptible to a crash should things go wrong.
The Naphtha market was slightly firmer this morning.
The February MOPJ crack is valued at around $ 2.6 / bbl and March at $ 2.00 / bbl. The Singapore crack for February is valued at $ 1.2 /bbl for February.
The gasoline markets are steady to marginally stronger. The February crack is now valued at $ 13.3 cents /bbl. The March crack is valued at $ 12.85/bbl.
The gasoil crack for February too held steady. However, the regrade dippled marginally. The February crack is valued at $11.60 /bbl with the Regrade at flat
Fuel Oil has made a strong recovery over the weekend. February is now valued at – $ 3.2 /bbl which is marginally better than yesterday and March at -$ 4.2/bbl. This represents a gain of almost $ 1.6 /bbl for February and $0.6 / bbl for March. This could represent a consolidation as the market over corrected in the last few days of the week.
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.
Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity