Crude OilCovid StatsNaphthaGasolineDisitllatesFuel OilHedge Strategy

Oil prices continued to rise through yesterday as the Saudi energy minister kept the market guessing as to whether the group will add more supply later this year to keep pace with the accelerating global recovery.

Brent crude  settled up 62 cents, or 0.9%, at $70.25. Brent hit a 12-week peak of $71.32 earlier.

WTI crude settled up $1.40, or 2.1%, at $67.72 per barrel, after hitting a 12-week high of $68.87.

OPEC+ oil producers agreed on Tuesday to stick to the existing pace of gradually easing supply curbs through Jul’21, as they sought to balance expectations of a recovery in demand against a possible increase in Iranian supply.

Iraqi oil exports stood at about 2.9 MMB/D in May’21, largely unchanged MoM. Exports from Iraq’s southern Basra terminals hit 2.8 MMB/D, the ministry said, while shipments from Kirkuk through Ceyhan averaged about 99 KB/D.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to slightly increase its Jul’21 OSPs of light crude for Asia, as margin weakness and demand uncertainty cap the upside despite stronger crude benchmarks, a Reuters survey showed.

Hedge funds cut their bullish positions in petroleum last week for the 3rd week running, selling the equivalent of 8 MMB in the week to 25 May’21, though the rate of selling was slower than in previous weeks.


No Update today

At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 3.56 Million (+7,886 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose fell by around 180,000 DoD to 13.99 million. (Click here for details).

Asia’s naphtha crack weakened on Tuesday, slipping to $103.00 per tonne, compared with $104.50 per tonne in the previous session.

The June crack is lower at $ 0.40 /bbl

Asia’s gasoline crack continued to fall on Tuesday slipping by 10 cents to $4.65 per barrel.

Indian state refiners’ daily gasoline and gasoil sales declined by 19% and 19.9% MoM respectively, as lockdowns to curb the second deadly wave of COVID-19 hit industrial activities and consumption, preliminary data showed.

The June crack is lower at $7.05 /bbl

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.

Cash differentials for gasoil with 10 ppm sulphur content dropped by 2 cents to premium of 1 cent per barrel to Singapore quotes.

Cash differentials for jet were at a discount of 19 cents per barrel to Singapore quotes, compared with a discount of 26 cents per barrel a day earlier.

Global scheduled airline capacity was 6.4% higher WoW to a 14-month high of 67.9 million seats for the week started 31 May’21, according to OAG. Global seat capacity has only recovered to 63.6% of its pre-pandemic Jan’20 level.

The June crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $5.70 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 7.50 /bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.60 /bbl. 

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.

Cash discounts for Asia’s 0.5% VLSFO were at $2.12 per tonne to Singapore quotes, compared with a discount of $2.69 per tonne a day earlier. The VLSFO differentials had hit minus $3 a tonne last week, their lowest since September.

The front-month VLSFO crack rose to $13.31 per barrel against Dubai crude during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, up from Monday’s $10.49 a tonne, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Meanwhile, cash discounts for 380-cst HSFO narrowed to $2.57 per tonne to Singapore quotes on Tuesday, compared with a discount of $2.65 a tonne on Monday.

The June/July time spread for the 380-cst HSFO in Singapore remained in contango to trade at a discount of $1.30 per tonne on Tuesday, compared with minus $1.55 a tonne in the previous session.

The June crack for 180 cst FO is higher at  -$6.40 /bbl with the visco spread at $0.95 /bbl.

Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.

No fresh action today. 

Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.

Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared

About this blog

This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.

Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity

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