Crude Oil
Crude Oil appeared to give up all hopes of sustained high prices at one point in time before recovering smartly to finish marginally lower than the previous day. Brent settled 14 cents lower at $ 51.68 / bbl. WTI fell by 37 cents to settle at $ 49.25 /bbl.
Brent had hit an intra day low of $ 50.45 / bbl yesterday before recovering most of its losses. The fall could be attributed to various reasons like loss of belief in the bullish case, resumption of operations at the Libyan oil fields etc.
The rise back could also be attributed to reasons like profit taking, bargain hunting, stopping out of weak shorts in the process.
As of now there does not appear to be any fundamental news that supports a bullish case. From a technical perspective crude has breached the 200 day moving average and returned above. It had also tested the support twice previously and failed to breach it. This argues for extremely strong technical support at these levels. Therefore, we look for a convincing breach of $ 51.37 before declaring the bullish case over.
Naphtha
The Japan Naphtha Dubai crack eased considerably in the wake of high light distillate stocks in both Singapore and the US. The May crack is at – $ 0.9 /bbl around 50 cents lower. The Singapore Naphtha – Dubai crack is at -$ 2.5 /bbl.
Gasoline
Gasoline stocks in Singapore have risen to their highest level in 8 months and marginally higher than at the same time last year. The May crack has plunged to around $ 10.10 /bbl today. The May-June spread is still valued at 36 cents / bbl.
Source : Bloomberg
Middle Distillates
Burgeoning Distillate stocks dampened gasoil cracks as well. The May crack is valued at $11.10/bbl. The regrade has weakened to -$ 0.70 /bbl for May.
Source : Bloomberg
180 CST Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil stocks drew quite significantly by 2.4 million barrels and served to strengthen the cracks. The May crack is up at -$ 3.35 / bbl
Source : Bloomberg
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.
Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity