Crude Oil
Crude prices edged up on Thursday as Jodi reported that Saudi Arabia’s Crude oil exports fell. Brent crude futures rose 35 cents to settle at $71.97 a barrel. WTI futures rose 24 cents to settle at $ 64.00 a barrel.
Brent saw a weekly gain of 0.6 percent, marking the fourth consecutive weekly rise for the international benchmark. U.S futures gained just under 0.2 percent for the week, their seventh weekly gain in a row.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell by 277 KB to just under 7 million bpd in February from the month before, according to data from the JODI.
The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by eight in the week ending April 18.
Strong U.S. retail sales data and earnings from industrial companies put global slowdown fears, sparked by underwhelming manufacturing surveys from Asia and Europe, on the back burner.
This morning, prices have jumped on news that US will be proceeding with the withdrawal of waivers.
Naphtha
Asia’s naphtha crack rose for the second day on Thursday, this time by 7.14 percent or $3.35 to a four-session high of $50.30 a tonne, but the level still indicated a weak market.
The average naphtha margin for April at below $50 a tonne this month is the weakest April levels since Thomson Reuters started tracking the data in 2008.
Ample supplies due to incoming cargoes from the West, including Europe and the Mediterranean, at a time of cracker maintenance in Asia and refineries coming back from turnaround were weighing on the fundamentals.
About 1.6 million tonnes of east-bound naphtha are expected for May arrival, largely unchanged from April, while IHS Markit expects the Middle East to supply up to 200,000 tonnes more of naphtha to Asia in May versus April.
The weak market has ruled in favour of buyers this week, where Malaysia-based Titan has bought a naphtha cargo for second-half May arrival at Pasir Gudang at a slight discount to Japan quotes on a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis. This was sharply down versus a purchase Titan had made on April 4 at a low single-digit premium.
The May crack is steady at – $ 5.70 /bbl
Gasoline
No fresh news on gasoline markets. Light Distillate Stocks in Singapore shot up to a record high of 19.67 million barrels. Stocks in Europe, however, declined by 107 KT to 967 KT.
The May crack is higher at $ 8.15 / bbl
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.
Distillates
Cash discounts for gasoil with 10ppm sulphur content widened to 21 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Thursday, partly hurt by weaker deals in the physical trade window. They were at a discount of 14 cents a barrel on Wednesday.
Singapore’s Middle Distillate inventories climbed to 12.8 million barrels, their highest levels so far this year. Gasoil stocks in Europe also rose by 71 kt to 2.8 million tonnes, their highest levels since October 2018.
Jet fuel cash discounts widened to 13 cents a barrel to Singapore quotes on Thursday, as against a 12-cents discount on Wednesday. The regrade , the price spread between jet and gasoil, for May narrowed to a discount of 15 cents a barrel on Thursday, compared with minus 27 cents in the previous session.
The May crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $ 12.75 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at 13.40 / bbl. The regrade has flipped to positive territory and is currently at $ 0.05 /bbl
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.
Fuel Oil
Asia’s 380-centistoke (cst) high-sulphur fuel oil cash discount widened on Thursday amid persistently sluggish demand and weaker buying interests in the physical market.
Cash differentials for 380-cst HSFO were at a discount of $1.02 per tonne to Singapore quotes, compared with a discount of 88 cents per tonne on Wednesday.
The more actively-traded 380-cst barge crack to Brent crude for May dipped to minus $7.66 a barrel during Asian trading hours, the lowest since December. The cracks were at minus $7.59 per barrel on Wednesday.
Singapore’s Fuel Oil inventories rose by 1.34 million barrels to 23 million barrels, just marginally short of the year high levels reached in February. Stocks in Europe, however, dropped by 105 kt to 793 kt. close to the low levels for the year.
The May 180 cst crack has dropped to – $ 2.95 / bbl with the visco spread at $ 1.50 /bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.
Hedge Recommendations
Nothing fresh to report for today.
Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refiner.
Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.