Crude Oil
An unexpected missile strike by the USA helped crude oil futures to continue their upward move for yet another day. Brent futures rose by 35 cents to settle at $ 55.24 / bbl while WTI gained 54 cents to settle at $ 52.74 /bbl.
Both contracts reached near one month high levels immediately after news of the missile strike. Brent touched a high of $ 56.08 /bbl while WTI reach $ 52.94 /bbl. The mood of the market is best summarized by the old saying “Be long or be wrong”
In other news, 10 rigs were pressed into service last week as per the latest Baker Hughes report. This brings the count of rigs to 672, the highest level since August 2015.
India’s oil demand in March has grown 4.9% over the previous year. On the other hand, Japan’s oil demand is expected to fall by 1.5% p.a. over the next 5 years as per Reuters reports
Technical Analysis
The daily charts show a strong vertical climb and seem to have established a rising channel. At $55.24 /bbl, i.e. Friday’s close, the charts have just broken above the 68.1% retracement line, definitely a bullish indication.
The weekly chart too shows a break of the retracement line(76.4%) in a bigger time frame.
Shorter term charts (intraday) also reveal a strong bullish sentiment.
However, in the daily charts, the CCI is showing bearish divergences and hence would recommend caution if trading from the long side.
For now, supports would appear at $55.08, followed by $54.87 and $ 54.07. Resistances appear at $56.34 and then $ 58.31
Naphtha
Gasoline
Gasoline cracks have stayed steady over the weekend with the April crack value at $ 12.6 /bbl. The May-June spread is also steady at 35 cents / bbl.
Middle Distillates
Diesel refining margins in Western Europe strengthened amid strong demand from West Africa even as the US stocks were dropping. Gasoil stocks in Europe dropped by 35 KT to 3.251 million tons.
Singapore prices are marginally firmer today. The value of the April Gasoil crack is $ 11.7 / bbl. The regrade for April is at -$ 0.2. The May regrade too has improved and is at $ 0.25 /bbl today.
180 CST Fuel Oil
Singapore time spreads improved dramatically as NWE stocks fell by a huge 25%. This stock is reported to be on transit to Asia and should show up in the next two weeks.
Predictably, the cracks were not much affected. Balance April was quoting at -$ 3.4 /bbl and May at -$3.8 /bbl
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.
Disclaimer : All the views are the author’s personal views. These do not constitute an advice to buy or sell any commodity