Crude Oil
Oil fell nearly 2% on Friday, finishing lower for the week in anticipation of a surge in Libyan crude supply.
Brent crude futures fell 69 cents to settle at $42.46 a barrel. WTI crude futures rose 61 cents to $40.64 per barrel.
For the week, U.S. crude futures lost 2.5% and Brent futures shed 2.7%.
Crude prices sank after Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) said it lifted force majeure on exports from key ports and output would reach 1 million barrels per day in four weeks.
US energy firms added 6 oil rigs in the week to 23 Oct’20 to total 211 (-485 YoY), according to Baker Hughes, with the industry expecting more momentum in drillers’ return to the wellpad as crude prices steady around $40/bbl.
Money managers raised their net long US crude futures and options positions by 35,859 contracts to 324,313 in the week to Oct’20, the US CFTC said on Friday.
covid 19
At a global level, the death toll from the COVID-19 virus rose to 1,158,810 (+4,498 DoD) yesterday. The total number of active cases rose by around 623,000 over the weekend 10.27 million. (Click here for details).
Naphtha
Asia’s naphtha inter-month spread hit a fresh six-month low, while crack fell to a two-month low of $64.20 a tonne as supplies dragged.
The November crack is steady at $ 1.55 /bbl
Gasoline
ARA gasoline inventories climbed 2.4% to a 2-week high of nearly 1.27 million tonnes in the week to Thursday.
The November crack is lower at $ 2.70 /bbl
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Gasoline stocks by region.
Distillates
Asia’s benchmark 10ppm diesel crack fell to a three-week low of less than $3 a barrel on Friday as supplies weighed.
Jet fuel cash differentials in the meantime remained at discounted levels as air travel demand is not expected to make any major recovery for the remainder of the year.
Full-year 2020 passenger numbers in the Middle East (to/from/within) are forecast to reach only 30% of the 2019 levels, down from the 45% projected in July, according to IATA. A full return to 2019 levels were not expected until late 2024.
ARA gasoil stocks fell by 68 KT to 2.72 million tonnes, a little higher than the previous year.
The November crack for 500 ppm Gasoil is lower at $2.05 /bbl with the 10 ppm crack at $ 2.85 / bbl. The regrade is at -$ 0.65 /bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Global Distillate stocks by region.
Fuel Oil
Asia’s 180-cst and 380-cst HSFO cash differentials jumped to fresh eight-month highs of $8.37 per tonne and $5.06 per tonne to Singapore quotes on Friday amid persistently higher deal values in the Singapore trading window.
VLSFO ex-wharf premiums for November were trading at about $5-$5.50 per tonne over benchmark quotes for cargoes of the fuel, up from a premium of about $4-$4.50 per tonne in October.
Residual fuel inventories at ARA jumped by 266 KT to 1.48 million tonnes.
The November crack for 180 cst FO is higher at $0.20 /bbl with the visco spread at $1.25 /bbl.
Click Here for a graphical depiction of Fuel Oil stocks by region.
Hedge Recommendations
No fresh action today.
Hedge recommendations are essentially made for refiners. These are not trading positions as such. The rationale of these positions is to lock in extraordinary levels for the refinery.
Click Here to see how all our recommendations have fared
About this blog
This blog post attempts to give a top level summary of the Singapore market goings on to a person who seeks to obtain a directional sense of the market on a daily basis.